For me, one of the toughest things to do is to predict race outcomes, especially in the Grand Tours, and even more so in the TDF. It may be a safe bet to pick Armstrong for a top 10 placing. But it's a lot different when you choose him for a top 5. And pick him to win?

So many factors enter the murky picture...This is his 5th year of intensive preparation on top of those many other years of great cycling; his battle with cancer and his tortuous recovery; the change in the USPS personnel; and the ambitions of his competition (What's with Aitor Gonzalez....using the Giro as a training ride or has fame gone to his head? Simoni...did he leave it all in the Giro or does he have a plan to arrive in France even stronger than he was in Italy? Hamilton...Is he a chronic poor performer in the mountains as Chris suggests, or were they the result of crashes and bad luck? Leipheimer...Jan Raas thinks he has a lot of potential...will he live up to it this year? Last year's top 10 finish was excellent. Ullrich...Can he overcome all that he's gone through and match his physical talent with psychological maturity? Just the sheer number of viable competitors will make this potentially one for the ages. Personally, I like Hamilton for his talent, but more so for his tenacity.) Against all that, is this the year where all the pressure mounting against Armstrong finally takes its toll?